1) Thank the Chinese.
Global Imbalance:
My dad wrote, "Is this at all good news???" First, it's strange, delightful, and very cool that my dad is asking me questions. He's always known more than me - and he will always know more about all things scientific or mathematical, and probably financial - so for him to ask me about something makes me very proud. (Not that he's never asked, mind you. I'm also very lucky to have parents who teach me and simultaneously acknowledge that they've learned from me.) Anyway. After a month of reading and many, many, many group meetings I think I have some substantial input on this question. Granted, if I wanted to have real input I'd have to go for a PhD in econ.
Here's what I wrote back:
"Good and bad. ... you're 1 day late on this link though - I gave my presentation y'day. ;) We've got a shared docs folder for each of our class presentations so I've saved this article there. Thanks for sharing!
It's a very long explanation which I'm going to attempt to write about on the blog. Essentially the USD needs to depreciate because of the drastic global imbalance between US and several other surplus countries (esp China - hence our push that they appreciate the Yuan and have better, more flexible money market), but this depreciation will hurt us adn the world because of a catch 22: USD is world currency and the most invested market. So, our $ goes down, our exports go up (we make money for our "store" called USA), our consumption goes down (we can't buy as much with our weak dollar), China's imports to us go down, we shrink our deficit, they shrink their surplus. But this also means that stocks, Treasury bills (that the chinese purchase with money from selling their exports to us) lose value which means their investment starts to mean less, which means people will move their money to another market - Euro? This means, we lose jobs in the US, lose production, lose the reign of world currency. And that's only a small portion of it. A lot of our deficit is owed to oil imports because it's an inelastic good - the price might go up but our consumption remains the same. Also, China's culture of saving (leftover from the Asian crisis & history of instability) means they won't consume our products as much = they aren't spending down their huge surplus. Also, our culture of spending/consuming since the Great Depression. We were starting to save as a country between 40s-80's but then hit the tech boom/production boom/investment boom and started spending more than saving, relying on credit more (I factor in here!). Who's carrying our credit addiction? The Chinese, the Asians, the oil barrons. And the great fear is that at some point our market is going to tank from partying hard for so long. When that happens it could be disastrous to the world who has invested in our markets - domino effect. So, we need to devalue the dollar a bit, we need to save more (yes yes what you've been saying ALL my life; Addendum: "You Can't Take It With You"), the gov't needs to tax us more, it needs to stop spending so much (twin deficits = foreign trade & budget!), we need to tighten our belts. And those countries who've been gluttonous in saving need to go on a shopping spree a bit.
So... i can write that now after about a month of reading and group meetings. i'm going to tally up my hours spent on this subject because it's insane how much i read just to understand global imbalance, current account balances in general and then to understand the US's position on how to address it. Man! the group meetings were interesting, too. 2 Indians, 1 Iranian, 1 USA, 1 China. Very interesting interactions, dynamics and learning."
[No additional editing has been done to the above. I'm sure it needs some but I've moved on from global imbalances. If you have questions, please feel free to direct them to me.]
1a) My memo to Shell in 1995 concerning their options in addressing a possible crisis in Nigeria.
1b) In our Scenario Planning class, we look at the future of Cuba. You can view our slide presentation here. (Guess who did the layout? Photos are from a million people/places all over the 'net. Hope I don't get sued. If you have the Mambo Kings album, the sound might work for you, as well. Or, just imagine "Guantanamera" for the first 4 slides. "Yo soy un hombre sincero / De donde crecen las palmas / Yo soy un hombre sincero / De donde crecen las palmas / Y antes de morirme quiero / Echar mis versos del alma / Chorus: Guantanamera / Guajira Guantanamera)
1c) An interesting article on the Sciences Po MPA in Le Monde (French) here. Quoted are two of my classmates, Sean who is West Point grad and retired early after being in Iraq for a while, and Preeti who is a lawyer from India.
2) My trip to Geneva was awesome. Ditched out of class a bit early to make it to Gare de Lyon. Of course, the metro all of a sudden had problems at Concorde, which sent a bit of panic through me. But thanks to my years of second-hand military training, I had given myself enough time in case of emergency. Luckily, the problem was fixed and we carried on to the station. At GDL I got my e-ticket from the machine and eying the long line at the Info booth, asked a woman if she knew where I'd get the TGV schedule to Geneva. Another testimony to the incorrect assumption that French are rude or unhelpful, she pointed out the big board in front of my face (without ridicule) and said that 20 minutes before departure, the gate would be available but that they either left from this large platform or another one across the way. Twenty minutes is not a lot of time between realization and finding one's seat, ahem. Thankfully, my train left from the main platform.
Sat next to a guy reading "Sur la Route." Yes, exactly, "On the Road" by Kerouac. Very good sign for me. I started to do some reading in preparation for the up-coming group presentation on Global Imbalances (see above, or see this PPT here; appendix is here). But then, the guy sitting next to me asked if I worked in Geneva and we began a really nice conversation. He works in GIS mapping and spoke s much English as I do of French. I learned that what I thought was mustard between London and Paris on the Eurostar is actually colza (used as an oil or biodiesel).
The older woman sitting across the aisle from us also chatted me up after my seat companion debarked. She's the wife of a retired career UN guy, with an apartment a few blocks away from me in Montmartre. She gave me her number in case I ever needed anything in Geneva. Totally nice.
Got to town. Bought a croissant in the train station just to absorb everything. I had time and it was still daylight and was drizzling a bit. Located the automatic bus fare machines and found #5 easily to head off to Home Saint Pierre, the Lutheran hostel for girls and women. (Normally I don't gravitate to sex-separation for my activities or accommodations, but this was the cheapest and most available at 28chf, which is roughly $1=1chf.) I thought Paris was pretty international - although I tend to hear more French, English, Russian, German, and then other Nordic languages and then other EU languages - but Geneva, of course, in its internationalism, I hear more of everything and then more of languages I've never heard before. I felt at home in this soupy mix.
I got off the bus at Place Neuve where men were playing giant chess in the drizzle. This is the old town of Geneva, all the way up the hill. Cobblestones like Paris. Old walls, old façades. I got a bit lost and asked a Latino-looking guy if he knew where the church St Pierre would be. He didn't, but answered me very nicely in French. I called the hostel and the very German sounding woman told me how to get there. I took a left and down stairs instead of a straight and right. Anyway. Found the place, checked in (her warmth left a little to be desired but I'm not young, nor am I afraid of new places), and went over to the dormitory for my bed. It feels a bit more lonely to have just a bed, like it's barracks or something. But I chatted up the young women there and discovered that one of them was from Paris, Sciences Po doing research for her thesis.
Went off to look for dinner possibilities and ran into the Latino (Peruvian) guy from before. He and I exchanged emails and he pointed me to a nearby Italian restaurant, at which I was served yummy pizza and Swiss wine (not as yummy) by a Portuguese server who spoke Spanish, English, French, and Portugal Portuguese (she slightly scoffed clarification when I asked if it was Brazil or Portugal). Got to bed rather early and got up rather early. After all, I was going to the HOLY %&$# United Nations!!!!
Check-out was at 10am so I packed everything and took the 7chf breakfast at the hostel, left the luggage, hiked down the hill, found the same #5 bus, passed the train station, passed UN Concil on Human Rights (wow), stopped at the official Palais des Nations entrance (where the photos of all the flags lined up are taken), hiked quickly up the hill to the other entrance. Through x-ray check and to security to check-in. Some kind of delay with checking and emails and if they knew before and had he sent the notice. Meanwhile, this nice woman who kind of helped me know I was in the right line at the right entrance was rolling her eyes and being a bit too overly critical and impatient of the process for my liking. But my future boss came down to meet me, I got the ugly photo pass (worse than a driver's license), and he walked me over to the UNECE and our floor.
He gave me the grand tour and by that I mean I got to meet the woman with whom I'd be working quite a bit, as well as the chief of the department. I'm walking a fine line in my blog between what I can/should share and what I know would be inappropriate. So, nah nah boo boo you don't get all the insider scoop on the UN. Suffice it to say the building still reflects the time period when it was built and offices are rather bare, bland, and unlively. Of course, consider also the amount of official business that is conducted in each and I guess one can't have a big dart board next to one's desk.
I met with the intern coordinator, who happens to be from Minnesota and graduate of University of Wisconsin. And then met all the interns who were around at the time. Very nice folks all of them. Very comfortable and very funny. Me, dressed in my nice suit pants, kitten heels, blue blouse, and pearls all thinking, oo the UN better dress nicely. The interns, all dressed in jeans and tee-shirt or definitely summer wear. They told me it usually took an intern an average of a week to ditch the business wear for the casuals. I think I'd like to keep a step up on the jeans wear though - just because of my age, my interests in future jobs, and to be kind of in the 'real world' despite my laziness and love of everything comfortable and easy.
The interns are, of course, from all over the world but most seem to be hailing from Europe and then more concentrated in the Eastern block. The unique thing about the UNECE is its focus on Russia and the Eastern countries to I guess that's why the predominance of interns from those regions - translation is a big activity for them. Interns from all departments are located in this area on the Stats Division floor since I guess they have the most empty offices. I sat with and talked to a young woman from Germany who works in the Environmental Policy division. Just so happened she mentioned that she had a great roommate in the old part of town and that she'd be ending her internship in May and leaving and maybe I'd be interested in talking to her roommate about the flat. She warned me that the place wasn't new and had a 5th floor walk up (ha! mine in Paris is 6) and the roommate is creative and so is the place. It sounded perfect to me as she described it. Just so happened the roommate was free at 3pm to meet me.
Next, I sat with the social coordinator intern, from Latvia. She'd been at the UNECE for a while and was coordinating outings, happy hours, etc for all the interns to bond.
I went back to my future boss as it was noon, and we headed to the cafeteria of the world.
..... it's bedtime for me now.. I'll finish this tomorrow. School's kind of winding down. May means 3 papers, a French exam, an Econ exam and then also visits from friends all over the world. The weather has been amazing here lately, with highs in the upper 70s and a lovely breeze. The metro is starting to feel heavy in air so I'm preferring the bus. Pants are folded for shorts and skirts. Skin can breathe again. Parisians seem happier. I'm super excited for this month but also a bit wary of how to balance it all. C'est la vie.
Oh, and if you're interested in hopping on the export/import train, my birthday's the 13th. There are two links upper right side that point to fun things on Amazon that I like. I'd be happy to ship you anything you request from Europe.
